Likely voters raise the odds of health reform passing following President’s summit, according to new poll

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HOUSTON - (March 8, 2010) - Following President Barack Obama’s healthcare summit on Feb. 25, a new poll shows that likely voters are feeling more confident that health reform legislation will pass in 2010. The University of Texas Health Science Center at Houston (UTHealth) commissioned Zogby International to conduct online surveys both before and after the summit.

“After the summit, there was an increase in the number of people who think health reform will pass this year,” said S. Ward Casscells, M.D., vice president of external relations and public policy and John Edward Tyson Distinguished Professor in Cardiology at UTHealth. “However, there remains an even split between President Barack Obama’s healthcare plan and a Republican alternative.”

The percentage of those surveyed who thought that health reform legislation has a 75 percent chance or better of passing this year increased from 22 percent to 34 percent. Conversely, the number of people who thought that health legislation has a 25 percent chance or less of passing dropped from 38 percent to 26 percent.

“I think voters may have been impressed by the President’s determination to get healthcare reform passed,” said Casscells, former U.S. assistant secretary of defense for health affairs.

Before the summit, 40 percent preferred the Obama plan and 40 percent preferred a Republican alternative. Afterward little changed with 43 percent preferring the Obama plan and 44 percent a Republican alternative.

What is interesting, according to Casscells, is that last year when pollsters asked adults what they thought of the U.S Senate Finance Committee’s proposed healthcare legislation, only 27 percent supported it.

When healthcare reform is described as the “Obama plan,” key components are defined and it is contrasted with a Republican alternative, support goes up, Casscells said. “This could be a testament to the popularity of the President,” he said.

Another key finding, according to Casscells, is that Democrats believe their party is being more forthright about reform than Republicans. “When asked which party is most serious about putting the nation’s needs ahead of political gain for health reform, 70 percent of the Democrats surveyed chose their party whereas only 55 percent of the Republicans selected their party,” he said.

Independents were more likely to believe that Democrats are more serious than Republicans about putting the nation’s needs ahead of political gain. Still, nearly half of the independents (49 percent) do not think either party will put the nation’s needs first, according to the poll.

The pre-summit survey of 1,665 likely voters was conducted Feb. 24-25 and had a margin of error of +/- 2.5 percentage points. The post summit survey of 2,805 likely voters between March 2- 4 had a margin of error of +/- 1.8 percentage points. 

In the latest survey, when asked if the President’s healthcare summit increased or decreased their support of the President’s healthcare proposals, 35 percent reported it had no impact on their support, 31 percent stated it decreased their support and 30 percent reported it increased their support.

Forty-two percent of those surveyed reported that they watched the bipartisan summit on healthcare and another 43 percent watched or read news coverage about the summit. Fourteen percent did not watch or read about it.

James Tyll, Chief of Staff to S. Ward Casscells, M.D.
312-613-0021
james.tyll@gmail.com

Rob Cahill
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